TOCOM natural rubber futures price was sharply up against the bottom of 185.00 yen on June 8 to 216.00 yen on the 16th, but then it fell back to 200 yen again afterwards.
Indicated signs of selling at the production area due to sudden price drops, and the Thai government was also taking the initiative to tackle this problem, under the leadership of a short-term short cover (repurchase) led to an autonomic repulsive phase. However, as a result, market situation measures that can be expected to be effective are not laid out, and the weight of the upper price is recognized again.
Three countries, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, held discussions on June 17-18. Although the content of the consultation there has not been made public, the chairman of the Indonesian Rubber Association shows the recognition that "There is no problem" about the recent plunge of natural rubber prices after consultation.
Although the Thai government has shown a strong sense of crisis in the present situation, Indonesia seems to be a speculative dropdown not based on fundamentals, and did not admit the necessity of intervention in market conditions. At least it is probable that the possibility of raising natural rubber prices through international cooperation is low at the current price level.
In Thailand, which has a relatively high cost line, subsidies for rubber farmers are decided. While USS spot price cuts below 1 baht = 60 baht, it will be in the shape of acknowledging the necessity of market measures. However, as for grant issuance, it is a factor that hinders the movement of demand-supply rebalancing accompanying the price decrease, so it can not approve the effectiveness as a market situation countermeasure.
The Thai government is calling for the necessity to raise the rubber price up to 70 baht, but unless a stronger marketing countermeasure, which was set as the direct purchase by the government and setting of the lowest price, is set out, the natural rubber price will be full-fledged by policy It will be difficult to rise.
Production pickup amount showed a sharp decline after entering June, but after that it is a move to update the highest season this season. No particular troubles are reported in the climatic environment of the production area, and if the collection pickup reflecting the seasonal factors continues as it is, the rubber price will once again increase the risk of devaluation of the lower price.
Although there is no doubt that the sense of crisis against the plunge of the rubber market is beginning to rise in the producing country, the development will continue to devalue the level in a form that considers the allowable low limit line of the producing country.
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